Looking ahead to 2025 for residents in South Suffolk, I suspect many will have a sense of foreboding about the year ahead. In fact, bumping into constituents over the festive period, on spying me looming into view, unprompted a number used words along the lines of ‘I wonder what Starmer’s got in store for us next year’. I couldn’t have put it better myself.
To add some context, one such conversation was with a constituent who had literally just received their invoice for this year’s school fees, following Labour’s new education tax going live in January 2025, whacking up to 20% extra on to the cost of local independent schools. Another was someone who is the archetypal Suffolk small business owner, working extraordinary hours – but now facing new taxes and red tape across the board.
Whereas, what we really need as a county and as a country is confidence. That’s the magic elixir Keir Starmer should be seeking to conjure up for Britain when he returns from his holidays. From what I can see, there isn’t a nook or cranny of our public or private realm that couldn’t do with a dose of the most positive balm known to economics – the feelgood factor.
What would it take to get Britain’s mojo back as we enter the next calendar year? First and foremost, those who run the show have got to stop talking the country down. Instead, Labour’s senior Ministers need to recognise they made a massive miscalculation back in July, when they received their extraordinarily ‘large but shallow’ majority. Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer took it upon themselves to bemoan the state of Britain at every turn, in order to lay the groundwork for a set of tax rises that they had not had the courage to be open about in the election campaign that produced their super majority.
The problem is this – the public may well have been willing to accept higher taxes, and curtailed support (e.g. winter fuel), if Labour had been open about such measures. I’ve never sought to pretend taxes went anything other than up in the latter part of the Conservative Government, but that’s because we had bills to pay that everyone in the nation had benefitted from – furlough; energy support; keeping the country going during two of our most extraordinary crises outside of WW1 or WW2.
Labour’s narrative could have been – we are coming to power after a tumultuous period that continues to leave its legacy, and so taxes will have to rise initially, and we’ll have to take difficult decisions on the winter fuel allowance etc. But… with the caveat that such decisions would make the country better off.
I sincerely believe that the country could have swallowed that approach, even if it had taken more guts to start with. But that’s leadership; that’s the essence of politics.
Whereas, the so called ‘Ming Vase’ strategy that Keir Starmer chose in practice set out no such strategy, playing it ‘safe’ in the campaign with nothing but vaccuous pledges, and sought to talk Britain down relentlessly once in power so that the ‘surprise’ decisions to put up taxes and scrap the winter fuel allowance could still be justified – after his majority had been banked.
The impact has been no surprise to me: higher taxes delivered, but in the context of a weakening economy, cripplingly short on confidence. It’s worth stressing that when Labour came to power last July we had 2% inflation, on target despite all the strain of the Ukraine-war related cost of living crunch; we also had the fastest growth of the G7 industrial nations, and our budget deficit (the country’s overdraft) was a respectable 4.4|% of GDP, compared to well north of 10% when we came to power in 2010, with Britain then truly on the cusp of bankruptcy. Whereas today, Britain appears on the cusp of recession.
So we need a fresh start from the Government. Stop talking Britain down. Back our wealth creators and businesses. In particular, for a rural country like ours that means backing our farmers.
Without confidence, you cannot have growth. Without growth, you cannot have the prosperity we all benefit from.
If the Government were to make a new year’s resolution that ‘thou shall not talk Britain down’, we’d be in a much better place immediately. Realistically, Labour aren’t about to scrap every policy – but senior Ministers could have the humility to recognise the damage done and change course.
Whatever happens, I’m sure our local businesses will do their best to deliver a prosperous 2025 regardless, and I wish all EADT readers a happy new year.
Published in the East Anglian Daily Times.
